L'industrie pétrolière est-elle en mesure de fournir 105 millions de barils de pétrole par jour en 2025?

L'industrie pétrolière est-elle en mesure de soutenir un monde qui consomme 105 millions de barils de pétrole par jour en 2025? | Science et technologie du pétrole et du gaz - Revue d'IFP Energies nouvelles

Un article de l'Institut Français du Pétrole

Abstract

This paper investigates the significant risk of a supply crunch in the oil market by 2025 and beyond, given current pace of investment and growth of world demand. We focus particularly on today’s upstream sector and the challenges it faces in meeting the ever-increasing demand for oil. We then study different production scenarios for U.S. unconventional oil potential and draw conclusions on its potential capability to offset the weakening context of conventional oil supply (declining production, declining discoveries, insufficient investment, persistent geopolitical risks and environmental pressures). We conclude that with growing oil demand, the probability of an oil crunch by 2025 is far from null.

Conclusion

In the context of a declining conventional sector (declining production, declining discoveries, insufficient investment, persistent geopolitical risks and environmental pressure) the U.S. unconventionals have emerged as the new opportunity for the Oil and Gas industry to meet the assumed increasing demand. Nevertheless, faced with a demand for oil that would continue to grow in the coming years, the probability of an oil crunch by 2025 is far from null. According to our study, it is unlikely that the U.S. will be able to double their unconventionals production in future years, and, it seems unlikely that another country will be able to put such unconventionals oil volume into production within a few years.

Given the close link that currently exists between energy consumption and global economic growth⁶, it is then difficult to mention the possibility of an oil crunch without mentioning its main possible consequences. The literature already provides analyses of the consequences, mainly economic, of a lack of oil supply on our society, including higher oil prices. While the impacts may vary considerably from one sector and region to another, the transport sector (air, maritime, passenger transport) will be one of the first strongly affected because it is mainly based on the use of liquid fuels. Operations and supply chains disrupted by price increases could quickly result in significant financial losses or bankruptcy. Resulting global high price inflation, combined with uncertain markets, could trigger a world economic recession or a financial crisis, leading to a reduction in global wealth and social issues. Such perspectives and possible consequences cannot be taken lightly and force us today to anticipate and mitigate the risk of a global energy supply contraction. New policies must be set up to minimize the risk of a supply crunch and reduce as much as possible the negative impacts on our societies of such an event.

In addition, the prospect of a slowdown in oil supply strongly reaffirms, in line with global climate objectives, the need for a transition towards an increasingly moderate and efficient use of our energy and the deployment of more renewable capacities. Countries will gain in energy independency and partially reduce the impact of an oil crunch on their economies.

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