One of the reasons that it is been so hard for a lot of analysts, even trained economists, to understand the imbalances that were at the root
of the current crisis is that we too easily confuse national savings
with household savings. By coincidence there was recently a very
interesting debate on the subject involving several economists, and it
is pretty clear from the debate that even accounting identities can lead
to confusion.... Read more...
8/24/14
Excess German savings, not thrift caused the European crisis by Michael Pettis
One of the reasons that it is been so hard for a lot of analysts, even trained economists, to understand the imbalances that were at the root
of the current crisis is that we too easily confuse national savings
with household savings. By coincidence there was recently a very
interesting debate on the subject involving several economists, and it
is pretty clear from the debate that even accounting identities can lead
to confusion.... Read more...
En se réformant pour s'adapter à la réunification, par la modération salariale et le recours à la sous-traitance dans les pays de l'est de l'Europe, son hinterland historique, l'Allemagne a généré des excédents commerciaux considérables (#200G€ en 2013); dans la zone euro à monnaie unique elle en tire tous les avantages de surcroit avec un taux de change favorable; mais elle impose ainsi des déficits aux autres, déficits auxquels ils ne peuvent s'adapter que par l'austérité puisqu'ils ne peuvent dévaluer. L'Allemagne a ainsi exporté aux autres son chômage des années 1990. C'est la thèse développée par Michael Pettis. On trouve les mêmes arguments chez Jacques Sapir dans son carnet RussEurope et dans Project Syndicate.
ReplyDelete